Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
7.2 miles South-East of Manhattan
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.2 miles South-East of Manhattan
38.4679°N, 116.9659°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 06:14:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
495h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
112.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
8.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.86
Predicted M3.16 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
9.0 km
Pred. 8.9 km vs actual 0.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d48ae3cccccbca3318b45b2ed8f54ada271245945bc5a6e425ee0f00456e457e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-38.47--116.97-20260518T0614
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.