Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
17.7 miles South-West of Point Arena
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.7 miles South-West of Point Arena
38.7822°N, 123.9774°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 18:18:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
507h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
116.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
28.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.96
Predicted M3.26 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
7.4 km
Pred. 2.0 km vs actual 5.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4b9076a59da78efe7c4b185ed1691cb29c613701c447061e03290281b9cf5451
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-38.78--123.98-20260518T1818
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.