Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
32.0 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
32.0 miles South-West of Eureka
40.3843°N, 124.4286°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2023
May 20, 2023 01:20:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
80.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
41.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.99
Predicted M4.61 vs actual M5.6
Depth Error
18.3 km
Pred. 8.3 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f292437b8b1220bb5fbc164b719af05849b6fd6b23f0e233e6d70b69cf66f84c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_083450_pred-40.38--124.43-20230520T0120
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 15:34:53 PST
Source Batch
20260427_083450_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:13.945195+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.