Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
4.4 miles South of Olancha
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.4 miles South of Olancha
36.2188°N, 118.0077°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 01:06:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
151h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
30.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
43.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.65 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
10.8 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9ff3574aacd42f27cbda33362ad2090061a5007f649c5564b09414d1bdd8cd7b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_103337_pred-36.22--118.01-20260504T0106
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 17:33:40 PST
Source Batch
20260427_103337_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:15.044587+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.