Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
30.0 miles North of Gabbs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
30.0 miles North of Gabbs
39.2953°N, 117.8016°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of April 2026
Apr 28, 2026 00:57:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
109.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
1.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M2.19 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
14.9 km
Pred. 4.0 km vs actual 11.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
14f7009d96e5078a6ed5796fad08ee1e739b9060e5cf691542e6ee5af749c5dd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_103337_pred-39.30--117.80-20260428T0057
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 17:33:40 PST
Source Batch
20260427_103337_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:15.044587+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.