Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
30.0 miles North-East of Primm
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
30.0 miles North-East of Primm
35.9950°N, 115.1375°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of April 2026
Apr 28, 2026 08:28:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
10h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
124.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
32.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.65
Predicted M2.05 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
8.0 km
Pred. 4.6 km vs actual 3.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ca60e9271759251b15f88c9997d6e837a8fceb68ca559d32432d938b9c006bf2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_151456_pred-35.99--115.14-20260428T0828
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 22:14:59 PST
Source Batch
20260427_151456_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:18.995454+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.