Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
5.2 miles East of Manhattan
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.2 miles East of Manhattan
38.5634°N, 116.9714°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 21:30:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
501h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
84.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
44.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.59
Predicted M3.19 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
10.6 km
Pred. 8.9 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
717e183ba7c63aaa1a42138cfe62598f604d56c324ae79d484a81750d2db70ae
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_165745_pred-38.56--116.97-20260518T2130
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 23:57:48 PST
Source Batch
20260427_165745_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:20.417164+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.