Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
9.6 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.6 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.8080°N, 122.7639°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of June 2026
Jun 11, 2026 00:47:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1056h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
46.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.96
Predicted M3.46 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
12.7 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
775cd423a7e3ea30b5775d3af8b8695da25cf989a54ce876838bd5749f778d38
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_165745_pred-38.81--122.76-20260611T0047
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 23:57:48 PST
Source Batch
20260427_165745_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:20.417164+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.