Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M5.5
4.9 miles South of Pearsonville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.9 miles South of Pearsonville
35.8926°N, 117.9693°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 03:07:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M5.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2834h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
24.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
19.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.55
Predicted M5.45 vs actual M3.9
- 0.55 over limit
Depth Error
13.0 km
Pred. 8.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
567eb1a646db14ca29ed8d64de1424c5ae1c9dd01c37207b535216d2682dc732
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_174012_pred-35.89--117.97-20260824T0307
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 00:40:15 PST
Source Batch
20260427_174012_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:21.832278+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.