Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
18.5 miles South-East of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.5 miles South-East of Belmont NV
38.4525°N, 116.5626°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 21:30:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
496h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
117.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
4.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M3.19 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
20.2 km
Pred. 8.9 km vs actual 11.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c2ceb68dd45ef69ca13a9d9d756d0615e257c1a2fd60823b58e3dd9a6b3f5d38
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_214534_pred-38.45--116.56-20260518T2130
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 04:45:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_214534_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:24.315465+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.