Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
19.5 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.5 miles North of Warm Springs
38.4562°N, 116.4769°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2026
May 20, 2026 08:10:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
531h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
119.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
10.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.45
Predicted M3.05 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
4.7 km
Pred. 3.0 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3f5b049ab135492b5fc13b14a7da28e56c5010299614b851a0094ad4a50b0abe
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_214534_pred-38.46--116.48-20260520T0810
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 04:45:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_214534_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:24.315465+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.