Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
8.1 miles North-West of Chico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.1 miles North-West of Chico
39.7796°N, 121.9744°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of May 2026
May 16, 2026 05:57:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
433h 11m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
112.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
9.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.74
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
47.5 km
Pred. 9.1 km vs actual 38.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
87405de166242f04326d57b056ff0b7901d83f6c880dc1987feccc76ee1df869
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_214534_pred-39.78--121.97-20260516T0557
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 04:45:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_214534_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:24.315465+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.