Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
16.0 miles South of Tecopa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.0 miles South of Tecopa
35.6299°N, 116.2840°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 07:13:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
597h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
106.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
28.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.98
Predicted M3.38 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
7.9 km
Pred. 2.9 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fed8a667a92b4feec2f70cee8c72ea1ec4cd94de12efe6ca3c734edf9c7546c8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_024314_pred-35.63--116.28-20260523T0713
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 09:43:17 PST
Source Batch
20260428_024314_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:55.192703+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.