Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
18.4 miles East of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.4 miles East of Belmont NV
38.5460°N, 116.5074°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 06:51:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
573h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
120.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
36.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.32 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
7.9 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
065a59772d6e82cde82fc88ff7eb3bcba23fbbeb7373490ffa4d9ac7de9b9365
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_024314_pred-38.55--116.51-20260522T0651
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 09:43:17 PST
Source Batch
20260428_024314_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:55.192703+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.