Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
45.7 miles West of Fort Bragg
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
45.7 miles West of Fort Bragg
39.3561°N, 124.6539°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 14:14:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
604h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
117.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
43.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M3.6
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
30c08b88ef306959f5563d4847e82e963700fb49bb324763a9004ed371a08363
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_024314_pred-39.36--124.65-20260523T1414
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 09:43:17 PST
Source Batch
20260428_024314_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:55.192703+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.