Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
36.9 miles South of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
36.9 miles South of Nye
38.1386°N, 115.2864°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of April 2026
Apr 28, 2026 10:44:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
113.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
37.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.28
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
12.9 km
Pred. 8.2 km vs actual 4.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7f0a2ae588b542a48739c76da741700e875ca96de82f1b14f6206fd14404be4a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_063842_pred-38.14--115.29-20260428T1044
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 13:38:45 PST
Source Batch
20260428_063842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:57.767515+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.