Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
8.1 miles South of Edwards
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.1 miles South of Edwards
34.8085°N, 117.8792°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 22:44:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
581h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
115.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
2.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.58
Predicted M3.28 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
12.5 km
Pred. 3.6 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9e3d6bd6eb1d7b7e5e166089068c45f371c94dba83b0381dad0b893534f91158
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_101620_pred-34.81--117.88-20260522T2244
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 17:16:23 PST
Source Batch
20260428_101620_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:59.151216+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.