Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M5.5
10.2 miles East of Brown
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.2 miles East of Brown
35.8709°N, 117.7071°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 03:07:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M5.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2816h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
26.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
19.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.55
Predicted M5.45 vs actual M3.9
- 0.55 over limit
Depth Error
13.0 km
Pred. 8.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b8c86ab8d423f1dfd081886bc4f651f7dd185c7e1570146aac1449ea3710eb34
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_113531_pred-35.87--117.71-20260824T0307
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 18:35:34 PST
Source Batch
20260428_113531_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:00.601485+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.