Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
6.8 miles South-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.8 miles South-East of Potter Valley
39.2382°N, 123.0477°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 22:51:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
44h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
54.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
45.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.00
Predicted M2.1 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
9.4 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cae12ebe6b5bb4e7850fcd6fbe443e0ef39178a72d2c1205f9c4b157c4e2df47
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_193747_pred-39.24--123.05-20260430T2251
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 02:37:50 PST
Source Batch
20260428_193747_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:06.055197+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.