Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
19.8 miles South-West of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.8 miles South-West of Nye
38.4310°N, 115.5907°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 06:51:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
554h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
79.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
48.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.32
Predicted M3.32 vs actual M2.0
- 0.32 over limit
Depth Error
9.8 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 3.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
94aaf2d9608ae7b7577d5eced0852e241333177f370f86700e0a335a7f743e0e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_212208_pred-38.43--115.59-20260522T0651
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 04:22:11 PST
Source Batch
20260428_212208_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:07.486185+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.