Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
26.7 miles South-West of La Jolla
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.7 miles South-West of La Jolla
32.6499°N, 117.6765°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2026
Apr 29, 2026 22:06:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
105.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
32.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M2.0 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
16.3 km
Pred. 1.6 km vs actual 14.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
808f10248054be6880d551ebf31bcce56e2bf117eec3caf299836b0e9f31afd0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_005057_pred-32.65--117.68-20260429T2206
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 07:51:00 PST
Source Batch
20260429_005057_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:33.661807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.