Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
8.1 miles South-West of Idyllwild
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.1 miles South-West of Idyllwild
33.6766°N, 116.8355°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of June 2026
Jun 11, 2026 11:15:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1028h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
50.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
42.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M3.42 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
11.2 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b0e82445920f6280cd5af6e3f52a295e0518abb9a1d1da376946347183ab9f1a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_072527_pred-33.68--116.84-20260611T1115
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 14:25:30 PST
Source Batch
20260429_072527_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:38.968288+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.