Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
3.7 miles South of Mammoth Lakes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.7 miles South of Mammoth Lakes
37.5967°N, 118.9538°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of June 2026
Jun 08, 2026 19:18:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
964h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
120.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
5.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.90
Predicted M3.1 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
11.7 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 5.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
27d6729a10ebcb73a6c271d189a99033c3b83036a63905c057684f7c3c9e46e4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_072527_pred-37.60--118.95-20260608T1918
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 14:25:30 PST
Source Batch
20260429_072527_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:38.968288+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.