Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
18.6 miles South-East of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.6 miles South-East of Belmont NV
38.4657°N, 116.5497°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 13:02:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
550h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
114.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
42.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M3.09 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
8.6 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
338d16ed34de24d8fab2ceb3ca547f05f1393dee2e1bc9cb5784ec168a0eac3a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_072527_pred-38.47--116.55-20260522T1302
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 14:25:30 PST
Source Batch
20260429_072527_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:38.968288+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.