Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
40.2 miles South of Jacumba Hot Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
40.2 miles South of Jacumba Hot Springs
32.0599°N, 116.3731°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 10:44:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
112h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
102.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
11.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.14
Predicted M2.26 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
19.5 km
Pred. 9.5 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
19e1ed4cea9d58b93db17fcde13674d603969f79a1225dca8f899bb9e8ce650f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_104707_pred-32.06--116.37-20260504T1044
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 17:47:10 PST
Source Batch
20260429_104707_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:41.547701+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.