Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
8.1 miles South-East of Edwards
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.1 miles South-East of Edwards
34.8246°N, 117.8442°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of May 2026
May 25, 2026 18:33:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
623h 10m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
54.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
47.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.97
Predicted M3.77 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
16.9 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f548e48b230333aa8650a730b65e954b54b21caa1c1126980350882548efce6b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_122224_pred-34.82--117.84-20260525T1833
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 19:22:27 PST
Source Batch
20260429_122224_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:42.918844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.