Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
18.8 miles North-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.8 miles North-West of Warm Springs
38.4335°N, 116.5188°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 13:59:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
570h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
123.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
42.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.53
Predicted M3.27 vs actual M3.8
Depth Error
15.7 km
Pred. 5.7 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9a429fdceeadf4565b490f03c397dc9308dbfa80fe565d9ace8952129295bae7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_122224_pred-38.43--116.52-20260523T1359
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 19:22:27 PST
Source Batch
20260429_122224_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:42.918844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.