Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
4.5 miles North of Trinidad
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.5 miles North of Trinidad
41.1209°N, 124.1692°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 22:58:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
71h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
94.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
43.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M1.94 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
13.6 km
Pred. 4.8 km vs actual 8.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6f0759f3382a1ba9ab8224a2afc5e59a178d281de09e02fb022ddc5e0f8ebbf2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_161050_pred-41.12--124.17-20260502T2258
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 23:10:53 PST
Source Batch
20260429_161050_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:45.594794+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.