Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
1.6 miles East of Walnut
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.6 miles East of Walnut
34.0208°N, 117.8377°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of May 2026
May 27, 2026 15:48:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
652h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
79.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
36.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.64
Predicted M3.44 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
14.2 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
11d1da3d76d5f524ed3e6d746725cea35b49b013fd18e87ee0a52d62df4c8fb1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_040135_pred-34.02--117.84-20260527T1548
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:01:38 PST
Source Batch
20260430_040135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:25.304700+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.