Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
1.9 miles South of San Ramon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.9 miles South of San Ramon
37.7527°N, 121.9781°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 22:38:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
563h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
105.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
42.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.77
Predicted M3.07 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
9.4 km
Pred. 3.2 km vs actual 6.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e2db6a84c05fbae94901b3ac4c66ac22ceb1b98f3d69f43b1ea8ace1cb4a005d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_040135_pred-37.75--121.98-20260523T2238
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:01:38 PST
Source Batch
20260430_040135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:25.304700+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.