Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
17.6 miles North of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.6 miles North of Clear Lake
39.3009°N, 122.7698°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 14:40:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
627h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
88.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
38.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.82
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
12.8 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 7.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d76943ddc3e9929ff0d924e82adcf857240b2cdbc9b3168f3512767250d349aa
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_040135_pred-39.30--122.77-20260526T1440
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 11:01:38 PST
Source Batch
20260430_040135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:25.304700+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.