Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
18.9 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.9 miles North of Warm Springs
38.4429°N, 116.4910°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 17:05:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
529h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
118.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
46.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.54
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
7.2 km
Pred. 5.5 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d5679f717d38c2f2e0d879ce384313f6277abff6018be486e772685e2b7d13e5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_083522_pred-38.44--116.49-20260522T1705
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 15:35:25 PST
Source Batch
20260430_083522_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:29.163034+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.