Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
9.4 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.4 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3087°N, 119.1041°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 01:05:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
609h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
119.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
21.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.94
Predicted M3.04 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
4.6 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 1.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
eda1a9c5da7978ff3abe4214fb3f46f23e7ec4d5abbcf48cb1049c162b22ffa8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_083522_pred-39.31--119.10-20260526T0105
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 15:35:25 PST
Source Batch
20260430_083522_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:29.163034+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.