Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
19.9 miles South-West of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.9 miles South-West of Austin
39.2461°N, 117.2605°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 03:35:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
6h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
108.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
45.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.33
Predicted M2.53 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
5.0 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 0.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
74cf2f211e333c9fc56dab00034dcfc20e6b2c6edfb33ab41991416dcef949ee
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260430_142733_pred-39.25--117.26-20260501T0335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 21:27:37 PST
Source Batch
20260430_142733_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:31.951048+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.