Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
17.3 miles East of Gerlach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.3 miles East of Gerlach
40.6941°N, 119.0301°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 00:02:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
29h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
92.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
38.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
10.7 km
Pred. 3.1 km vs actual 7.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
32faa7beedfecf08a6695c10e5113209bc55845a8b26dce8f29db0f3e5836eed
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260503_115941_pred-40.69--119.03-20260505T0002
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 03, 2026 18:59:44 PST
Source Batch
20260503_115941_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:13.787204+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.