Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
21.6 miles West of Round Mountain
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.6 miles West of Round Mountain
38.7959°N, 117.4586°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 21:17:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
194h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
119.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
40.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 8.6 km vs actual 10.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ca1135686e4594cd5792f5438fd9164356365dd628fa69c5dcf56e3a330de852
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_120805_pred-38.80--117.46-20260512T2117
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 19:08:08 PST
Source Batch
20260504_120805_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:10.057520+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.