Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
12.7 miles South of Coleville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.7 miles South of Coleville
38.3221°N, 119.4570°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of June 2026
Jun 27, 2026 19:12:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1290h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
123.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
8.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.84
Predicted M3.34 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
26.1 km
Pred. 9.8 km vs actual 16.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
edda52531e15b43b581e88267185b789ae4d62ba8ad8ff581c39f97546403652
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_175950_pred-38.32--119.46-20260627T1912
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 00:59:53 PST
Source Batch
20260504_175950_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:11.154164+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.