Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
43.3 miles South-West of Daly City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
43.3 miles South-West of Daly City
37.2162°N, 122.9907°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of May 2026
May 11, 2026 19:18:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
143h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
107.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
20.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.28 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.1 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 7.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d6fbd90511dcae62502f847a2763ead4c27244aa5a9bc7290ba2ca5ef46744de
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_130408_pred-37.22--122.99-20260511T1918
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 20:04:12 PST
Source Batch
20260505_130408_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:07.184452+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.