Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
56.6 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
56.6 miles South-West of Eureka
40.3202°N, 125.0365°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 13:24:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2273h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
67.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
26.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.31
Predicted M3.11 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
15.8 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6dee03fa5fa579c6dfe0f264a497b3e14366b5781b863567db2cbd21a7232d67
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_132131_pred-40.32--125.04-20260809T1324
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 06, 2026 20:21:34 PST
Source Batch
20260506_132131_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:03.394860+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.