Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
6.8 miles North of Susanville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.8 miles North of Susanville
40.5094°N, 120.6926°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 13:16:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
141h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
119.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
47.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.45
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M1.9
Depth Error
12.9 km
Pred. 10.5 km vs actual 2.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2622fd2e121ef75806071779d229cbfd2358dc408c3743175a70f023b9dbcf01
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_085103_pred-40.51--120.69-20260513T1316
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 07, 2026 15:51:07 PST
Source Batch
20260507_085103_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:58.844007+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.