Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
13.9 miles South of Auburn
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.9 miles South of Auburn
38.7093°N, 121.1695°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of May 2026
May 09, 2026 05:47:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
124.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
41.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M2.18 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.5 km
Pred. 7.4 km vs actual 7.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6962748fef00d7ab6141c371628aa533a04519f7c051d2773aabcb18c44b0d78
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_074834_pred-38.71--121.17-20260509T0547
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 14:48:37 PST
Source Batch
20260508_074834_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:54.504064+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.