Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
4.4 miles South of Moreno Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.4 miles South of Moreno Valley
33.8795°N, 117.2375°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2026
May 20, 2026 06:14:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
275h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
109.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
10.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.66
Predicted M3.36 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
18.1 km
Pred. 8.1 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4c7e1cfb1704322a41887c5d4fa614e539362fe24729c24fb7a5fb8f9a9c9724
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_115523_pred-33.88--117.24-20260520T0614
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 18:55:27 PST
Source Batch
20260508_115523_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:55.347962+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.