Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
28.8 miles South-East of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.8 miles South-East of Austin
39.1357°N, 116.7966°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 08:42:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2509h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
81.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
24.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.78
Predicted M3.48 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 8.1 km vs actual 6.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c1866aa1802440c92273aa078eabb439c66da0bc81298c049c2811b987ed20a4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_115523_pred-39.14--116.80-20260821T0842
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 18:55:27 PST
Source Batch
20260508_115523_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:55.347962+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.