Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
8.0 miles South-East of Dinkey Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.0 miles South-East of Dinkey Creek
37.0047°N, 119.0433°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of May 2026
May 10, 2026 05:21:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
6h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
112.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
17.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.90
Predicted M3.5 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
39.0 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 32.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f0941d24a92bb94312ec07921026ad04405baabccf818d8f70645533c4a72917
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_155427_pred-37.00--119.04-20260510T0521
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 22:54:31 PST
Source Batch
20260509_155427_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:51.829786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.