Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
20.4 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.4 miles North of Warm Springs
38.4681°N, 116.4791°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 20:27:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
321h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
119.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
42.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.37 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
7.4 km
Pred. 2.0 km vs actual 5.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e77365a663d6530ca24ed35f490799e772fad8241cb2d2e53717d01ea9d374f2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260510_034056_pred-38.47--116.48-20260523T2027
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 10:40:59 PST
Source Batch
20260510_034056_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:46.599900+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.