Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
9.8 miles North of Pine Mountain Club
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.8 miles North of Pine Mountain Club
34.9860°N, 119.1427°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of May 2026
May 17, 2026 21:03:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
156h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
110.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
20.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
6.7 km
Pred. 4.7 km vs actual 2.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fe8e5e26876624a99e42f580977440461d4d66b81286ca642f4ef4b3b58776ad
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260511_020020_pred-34.99--119.14-20260517T2103
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 11, 2026 09:00:24 PST
Source Batch
20260511_020020_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:43.198965+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.