Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
2.3 miles South-West of San Lucas
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.3 miles South-West of San Lucas
36.1081°N, 121.0546°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2026
May 20, 2026 01:18:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
184h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
118.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
32.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.05 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
7.5 km
Pred. 5.5 km vs actual 2.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0f400c4a860655543f69ab0e3e320f874897b819b3fee22b34ca3aea7de5a967
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_014928_pred-36.11--121.05-20260520T0118
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 12, 2026 08:49:33 PST
Source Batch
20260512_014928_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:39.167254+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.