Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
32.8 miles South-East of Battle Mountain
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
32.8 miles South-East of Battle Mountain
40.2816°N, 116.5275°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 23:19:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2385h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
205.8 km
80.8 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
21.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M3.3 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
17.5 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 11.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8ed61f3fc806a69204ea651fcfa9ac7860e6862e22e4b81621d252653acfa851
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_070341_pred-40.28--116.53-20260819T2319
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 12, 2026 14:03:45 PST
Source Batch
20260512_070341_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:40.304012+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.