Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
43.5 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
43.5 miles South-West of Eureka
40.2846°N, 124.6347°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 23:19:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2379h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
49.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
32.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.60
Predicted M3.3 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
16.1 km
Pred. 6.1 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
aeb9d1b9f5f1717ff56ecd03023baf13ed08fb7b349b47973578faea00843acf
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260512_125458_pred-40.28--124.63-20260819T2319
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 12, 2026 19:55:02 PST
Source Batch
20260512_125458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:41.203959+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.