Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
67.6 miles South-West of Avila Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
67.6 miles South-West of Avila Beach
34.5728°N, 121.6649°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 14:19:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
13.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2474h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
159.7 km
34.7 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
10.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.97
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
44.7 km
Pred. 13.6 km vs actual 31.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a543de1e6c2d38667ef385614d3a9ba5e390b1fea97bdbb93b9d5e82234c5c19
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260513_044602_pred-34.57--121.66-20260824T1419
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 13, 2026 11:46:06 PST
Source Batch
20260513_044602_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:36.210613+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.